Who are the Likely Beneficiaries of the Highly Diverse Latino Vote in US Mid-terms?
FILE – A voter fills out a ballot during the Pennsylvania primary election at the Michaux Manor Living Center in Fayetteville, Pa., May 17, 2022. As the 2022 midterm elections enter their final two-month sprint, leading Republicans concede that their party’s advantage may be slipping even as Democrats confront their president’s weak standing, deep voter pessimism and the weight of history this fall.
Daniela DiazSome 13.4Mln Hispanic Americans live in the United States who are eligible to vote in the US mid-term elections on November 8. They represent about 14 percent of all eligible voters, according to the Pew Research Center. However, their influence has a peculiarity: it is not uniform.The research center noted that in only four years, the number of potential Latino voters has risen by nearly 5Mln people, representing a significant number of potential votes on election day, which is shaping up to be a close one between the Republicans and the Democrats.
"Undoubtedly, the role of Latinos in the forthcoming elections that are about to take place in the United States will be decisive," Roberto Zepeda, a professor and researcher at the Center for North American Studies (CISAN) at the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM), said in an interview with Sputnik.
The expert said that, although Latinos generally lean towards the Democrats, the truth is that historically the vote of this demographic has been divided.”Hispanics are generally not unified, they are not grouped together, they do not form a lobby, as happens with other racial groups. We could say, for example, that in Florida there are Hispanics of Cuban origin and there are Venezuelans – they all vote differently. For example, Mexicans in California are not the same as those in Texas”, he explained.
AmericasBiden Administration Worries Democrats Could Lose Congress in Midterm Elections – ReportsYesterday, 22:33 GMTAna Vanessa Cárdenas Zanatta, an expert in international politics and coordinator of the International Relations Program at the Anáhuac University, agreed with him, adding that the Latino American vote tends to be varied.
"They are focused on a vote based on their interests, but it is still a disaggregated vote, not a community vote, and it can, indeed, tilt the balance on either side," she said.
Another point to note is the geography of migrants. Where does the Latino vote carry the most weight? According to Pew Research figures, California is home to about a quarter of all eligible Hispanic voters with 8.3Mln, and Texas has the second largest number of eligible Hispanic voters with 6.2Mln, followed by 3.4Mln in Florida, 2.1Mln in New York and 1.3Mln in Arizona. Together, these five states have about two-thirds of all eligible Hispanic voters.California is a state that has historically favored the Democrats, Zepeda pointed out. However, the opposite is true in Texas, where the vote favors Republicans, which is the same in Arizona. But the Latino community in the latter state behaves strangely: it supported Biden (Democrat) in the 2020 election.According to Cárdenas Zanatta, the hard vote in these states does not move with the Latino American vote, as they are swing states that have already defined their political stance.
AmericasEarly Voting High for Midterms; Increased Turnout Expected22 October, 22:20 GMTHowever, according to Zepeda, “almost 60 percent [of Latinos] are Democrats”. The expert added that, in 2020, Latin Americans leant towards Biden. Yet, in view of the political decisions made by the US president, there could be a punishment vote by this sector of the population, which has also seen its finances affected by the effects of inflation.
"Probably this would also have an effect: [Latinos] who voted for [Biden] in 2020, now in 2022 in the mid-term elections will not vote for him, because it is likely that many of them will take the vote away from Biden," he explained.
At present, the Democrats hold 221 of the 435 seats in the House of Representatives. The Senate is more even, as 50 of the 100 members are Republicans and the rest are Democrats. In the weeks ahead, the entire House of Representatives will be renewed and 35 of the 100 seats in the Senate will be up for election.According to pollster FiveThirtyEight, as of 10 October, Republicans are ahead in the House race, and Democrats have a slight lead in the Senate race.
